Shaping environmental policy in the pan-European region applying foresight methodologies

As the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) approaches its centenary, it faces a complex policy landscape shaped by global megatrends such as the triple planetary crisis, digitalisation, and an ageing population. Coupled with the enduring effects of COVID-19 and regional conflicts, these factors contribute to a poly-crisis with far-reaching implications. UNECE's Member States recognise the need for agile policies and future-ready legislative frameworks to navigate these challenges and accelerate progress towards sustainable development goals.

Answering the wider effort within the UN system to promote Futures Thinking in policymaking, the UNECE Environment Division will collaborate with Cranfield University to integrate foresight methodologies in the work of the Committee on Environmental Policy (CEP). The CEP is the governing body which supports member-states to enhance their environmental governance.

Background

In a rapidly changing, interconnected Europe, a foresight-oriented approach is essential to address the broader social and environmental impacts of science and technology, especially when formulating policy is challenging. Building on outcomes from the 17th session of the Economic Commission for Europe, the Committee on Environmental Policy (CEP) aims to integrate foresight within the Environment Sub Programme and its Multilateral Environmental Agreements. 

This approach promotes proactiveness, preparedness, adaptation, and innovation to meet commitments in a fast-evolving landscape. By establishing science-policy dialogue, the project will encourage collaboration between experts and stakeholders to challenge assumptions about social, economic, and technological trends, ultimately enhancing strategic planning and agile policy development.

Aim

The project aims to increase UNECE’s and its Member States anticipatory capacity to build coherence among future policies and help set priorities for the environmental policies in the pan-European region. 

The project will identify emerging issues, weak signals of change, and unexpected events with significant implications for the pan-European region and support the selection of priority issues to be discussed at the next regular sessions of the Committee on Environmental Policy.

Impact

By building foresight capacity and shaping future environmental policies, this project will allow UNECE to enhance coherence among policies and prioritise actions to address pressing environmental challenges in the pan-European region.

Key Activities

1. Analysis of needs and resources. A half-day online meeting with the Cranfield team, UNECE leads, and selected Bureau members, will define the focus and timeline of the UNECE horizon scan project. The Cranfield team will conduct desk research on European-focused horizon scans from the past five years to help define the focus of the study.
2. Horizon scan exercise. The Cranfield team will use their established method (Garnett et al. 2016) for a web-based scan of sources such as existing scans, scientific papers, government reports, trade press, and social media. 
3. Horizon scan workshops. An online half-day workshop will train UNECE environmental policy members in horizon scanning and sensemaking methods. In December 2024, a one-day in-person workshop will prioritise emerging environmental issues in the pan-Europe region and explore their implications and policy responses, held alongside the UNECE Committee on Environmental Policy meeting.
4. Policy advice for CEP and Environment for Europe (EfE) process. UNECE and Cranfield will hold online meetings. A half-day in-person workshop at the 2025 CEP meeting will share project outputs and discuss their impact on the CEP agenda and inform the EfE mid-term review, including proposals for the work program and themes for the EfE Conference.

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